There are quite a few lists going around with Street Food as one of the top trends of 2009, which is great but also makes street food a target for much “jump the shark” talk in 2010. Street Food is less a trend than the a leading edge of a change in our relationship with the food. Street Food is simply at the front of this change because of a confluence of technology, the high cost of starting a restaurant, and a poor economy. A similar change once happened when the home cooked meals turned into restaurant cooked staples. Street food is not about carts, trucks, take-out windows, mobile restaurants or one-time supper clubs; Street Food is about giving people adventure, immediacy, intimacy with the food that they eat (and the people who cook that food), and a diversity of flavors that you can’t easily find in one restaurant. That trend isn’t going anywhere and, while the costs stay reasonable, neither is street food.

With that in mind here are some themes that might variously (and wrongly) be called “the death of the street food trend” in 2010.

1) Restaurateurs getting into the game:
Right now it costs between $8,000 and $110,000 dollars to start a mobile food business in California (you can get into it for less in other states). Even at the top end, a would be restaurateur would be hard pressed to get into a finished brick and mortar location for less than double that $100,000. Because of that, it makes sense that established industry folks would be interested in Street Food. So, why no big push?

The economics of Street Food work extremely well for supporting an owner operated cart (or truck). You can make a decent living if you serve good food and know how to take advantage of emerging tastes and trends. But scaling street food to multiple trucks, or multiple styles, is unproven because of labor costs, high capital requirements for kitchens and equipment and high variation in city and state laws governing this area. So, if a major restaurateur gets into street food, people may say that the trend is dead, but I say that will be when the area is going to get really exciting. Once someone figures out home to make real money through scaling mobile cuisine is when a lot of professional chefs that have been on the fence will know that they can have a road map to success that doesn’t include them working on the grill every day for the rest of their lives.

2) The Rise of Brick and Mortar Solidarity:
There is no doubt that friction is going to happen. There is already friction when a new restaurant opens on a street with an existing restaurant there. Competition in the food business is fierce, and it is true that carts operate with less overhead than their fixed fixed location peers. Restaurants are already an existing tax base, and it is easy to legislate away legal mobile food businesses, so why would the rise of trade groups be a boon for Street Food? Two Reasons: 1) It will force brick and mortar restaurants to focus on what separates them from their street food cousins; more complex cooking techniques, relaxed atmospheres, accessible bathrooms, and ability to compliment a meal with alcohol are just a few. Will there be some pressure for restaurants in the middle? Sure. But isn’t there already? 2) Trade groups would be wise to see that Street Food vendors are their future customers and members. It is to their benefit to learn how to work with these entrepreneurs, and failure to do so is at their peril.

3) Health Code Enforcement:
Renegade street food exists because it is so expensive to open a legal business. Some might see increased Health Code enforcement as the end of proper street food, but the reality is that stepped up enforcement can only happen with increased flexibility in regard to cart standards and construction costs. If that happens it will facilitate a streamlined process that will allow for significant expansion of the mobile catering market. If it doesn’t, the enforcement will cause a wide variety of interests to coalesce around a political solution to righting enforcement wrongs. And, when political blow back is involved, I pity the incumbents that stand in the way of progress. Either way, stepped up enforcement means a better, safer, more professional long term street food movement.

4) A Better Economy:
It might have been a poor economy that contributed to foodies discovering and starting unique street food in 2009, but those same pressures don’t simply go away when there’s more money in your pocket. Street Food serves a need for low priced, close proximity food. Those market forces won’t change, and neither will the start-up costs required to open a brick and mortar restaurant. If anything, a better economy might free up capital enough to allow professional chefs to more easily go it alone without significant investment from outside sources and open their own street food business. A better economy might mean that expensive wine starts moving again, but it doesn’t mean that the world is going to slow down. Thats street foods’ true niche.

5) Old School vs. New School Street Food Friction:
One of the lost stories of this year’s street food boom has been the large amount of street food vendors who have long been quietly working in this industry. Some produce great food, others produce less consistent food, but they do represent a group of people who have very few resources and work very hard to earn (barely) a living wage. As the barriers of out of date municipal regulations are removed around the country, there is going to be friction as strong vendors are separated by the quality of the goods that they sell rather than arbitrary limits on proximity between vendors. This friction doesn’t mean the end of the old school street food, but it could spell the end of the old way of operating; which is a win for customers who want quality and diversity of choices.

So cheers Street Food Vendors to a successful 2009. 2010 is going to be even better and don’t let anyone tell you any different.